The USDA maintains data on June supply and demand numbers

Ending reserves for new crops are projected at 2.102 billion bushels.

The farm gate price for 2024-25 is projected at $4.40 per bushel.

Looking at the “old crop” 2023-24, ending corn stocks were pegged at 2,022 bb. The pre-trade report had expected a decrease in ending stocks of old crops.

Ethanol use is projected at 5.45 bb. Total domestic use is forecast at 12.55 bb

Exports for the 2023-2024 corn crop are limited to 2.15 bb.

Globally, ending stocks for the 2023-2024 crop were pegged at 312.39 million metric tons (mmt), down 0.66 metric tons.

USDA kept Brazil’s 2023-24 production at 122 mmt. Exports remain pegged at 50 mmt.

The USDA also kept Argentina’s production at 53 mmt. The export volume remained at 38 mmt.

For the 2024-2025 crop, USDA caps production at 1,220.54 mmt, up 0.61 mmt, and ending stocks at 310.77 mmt, down 1.5 mmt.

soybeans

USDA projected new crop soybean production for the 2024-25 marketing year at 4.45 billion bushels with a national average yield of 52 bushels per acre. The production estimate was unchanged from pre-report estimates.

In the balance of domestic supply and demand for new crops, the USDA increased ending stocks by 10 million bushels to 455 mb. The only change from last month’s estimates was a 10-plus increase in starting stocks, reflecting changes in ending stocks of older crops. The national average farm gate price was unchanged at $11.20 per bushel.

For 2023-24, the vintage marketing year, the USDA put ending stocks at 350 million bushels, compared with a May estimate of 340 million bushels. The adjustment was due to a 10 mb reduction in the estimated print requirement. The national average farm gate price was unchanged at $12.55 per bushel.

Globally, the USDA updated its soybean estimate for crops that Brazil just finished harvesting (2023-24), estimating it 1 million metric tons lower than last month at 153 mmt. Argentina’s old crop estimate was 50 mmt, unchanged from last month.

Final global old-crop stocks were adjusted to 111.07 mmt, down less than 1 mmt from last month.

For new production, the 2024-25 marketing year, USDA put ending stocks at 127.9 mmt, within the range of pre-report expectations and 0.6 mmt less than last month. Brazil and Argentina production were unchanged at 169 mmt and 51 mmt, respectively.

WHEAT

USDA’s internal estimate of 1.875 billion bushels of 2024-25 wheat production was an increase from 1.858 bb in the May report, with average yield estimated at 49.4 bushels per acre up from 48.9 bpa in May.

New crop ending stocks are estimated at 758 million bushels, down from 766 million bushels in May.

Feed, seed and remaining use for new crops is estimated at 1,124 bb, an increase from May to 1,899 bb, with exports estimated at 800 mb, up from 775 bb in May.

US farm gate prices were pegged at $6.50, up from $6.00 in the May estimate.

Winter wheat production is forecast at 1.29 billion bushels, up 1% from the May 1 forecast and up 4% from 2023. As of June 1, the U.S. yield is forecast at 51.4 bushels per acre, up 0.7 bushels from last month and up 0.8 bushels from last year’s average yield of 50.6 bushels per acre.

Hard red winter production at 726 million bushels, up 3% from last month. The mild winter red at 342 million bushels is less than 1% off the May forecast. Winter white at 226 million bushels is down 1% from last month.

Global wheat production for 2024-2025 is estimated at 790.75 mmt, down from 798.19 mmt in May. Old wheat production is estimated at 787.59 mmt, up from 787.72 mmt last month.

World wheat production in 2024-2025 is estimated at 130.5 mmt in the European Union; 83.0 mmt in Russia; 19.5 mmt in Ukraine; 34.0 mmt in Canada; 29.0 mmt in Australia; and 17.5 mmt in Argentina.

cattleman

Wednesday’s WASDE report was mostly favorable for the cattle and beef markets, said DTN Livestock analyst ShayLe Stewart. Beef production for 2024 is down 5 million pounds as the market is currently seeing slower chain speeds, but this will not seriously impact production as heavier carcass weights will offset slower market turnover . Indicative prices in the remaining three quarters of the year saw higher price trends compared to last month’s report. Drivers in the second quarter of 2024 are expected to average $186 ($2 up from last month), drivers in the third quarter are expected to average $183 ($1 up from last month), and fourth quarter of 2024 is the only quarter to see a price decrease from last month as drivers are now expected to average $186 ($1 down from last month). Beef imports were steady at 4.171 million pounds for 2024, and beef exports were steady at 2.818 million pounds for 2024.

Wednesday’s WASDE report shared mixed results for the pork and hog markets, Stewart said. Pork production in 2024 increased by 42 million pounds as current slaughter speeds are more aggressive than originally assumed and carcass weights are also heavier. Quarterly hog prices saw a slight decrease from last month’s estimates as second quarter 2024 hog prices are now expected to average $66 ($2 down from last month), third quarter hog prices expected to average $68 ($3 down from last month) and fourth Quarter prices were unchanged at $56. Pork imports in 2024 increased by 10 million pounds, but in 2024 pork exports increased by 100 million pounds.

**

Join us at 12:30pm CDT on Wednesday, June 12 as we discuss the new USDA estimates and what they mean for crop prices. We are also happy to ask questions. For those who are busy at 12:30pm, a link will be provided to replay the webinar at your convenience, but you must register. Register here for Wednesday’s June WASDE Report Webinar: https://www.dtn.com/….

US PRODUCTION (Million Bushels) 2024-25
JUNE Average Up Low Can 2023-24
CORN 14,860 14,845 14,860 14714 14,860 15,342
Soy 4450 4444 4450 4,366 4450 4165
Whole Wheat 1875 1887 1973 1858 1858 1812
winter 1295 1307 1377 1278 1278 1248
HRW 726 724 788 705 705 601
SRW 342 353 370 344 344 449
The White one 226 228 235 219 229 198
US Ending Stocks (Million Bushels) 2023-24
JUNE Average Up Low Can
CORN 2022 1984 2031 1817 2022
Soy 350 348 371 319 340
Wheat 687 690 703 678 688
US Ending Stocks (Million Bushels) 2024-25
JUNE Average Up Low Can
CORN 2102 2048 2102 1931 2102
Soy 455 455 477 398 445
Wheat 758 782 837 741 766
ending stocks (million metric tons) 2023-24
JUNE Average Up Low Can
CORN 312.4 311.5 313.5 309.0 313.1
Soy 111.1 110.8 112.5 107.0 111.8
Wheat 259.6 257.3 258.5 255.0 257.8
ending stocks (million metric tons) 2024-25
JUNE Average Up Low Can
CORN 310.8 311.3 315.0 308.0 312.3
Soy 127.9 127.8 131.5 124.0 128.5
Wheat 252.3 252.0 255.0 248.9 253.6
WORLD PRODUCTION (million metric tons) 2023-24
JUNE Average Up Low Can
CORN
Argentinian 53.0 51.2 53.0 48.0 53.0
Brazil 122.0 121.0 122.5 118.0 122.0
soybeans
Argentinian 50.0 49.8 50.0 49.0 50.0
Brazil 153.0 151.8 154.0 147.0 154.0

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